Sens at Canadian Tire Centre on October 15 vs the Islanders
Count me in on the home win. That +32 goal differential last season wasn't a fluke - 278 for against 246 against and they still landed 9th with 99 points, so the underlying play was legit even where the standings didn't fully reward them. Islanders at Canadian Tire Centre on October 15 feels like a moneyline spot to me, I've got C$50 on it at my the bookie already, plus a smaller sprinkle on the puck line since Ottawa winning by 2 at home is live if the offence carries over. Only thing I'd flag: that's game two of a home stretch right after St. Louis on the 13th, so I'll be watching which goalie gets the start before I add anything else. Goalie check first, always. 🔥
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Interesting how everyone's reading that 9th-place finish as "unlucky". Dig a bit deeper and the picture is messier: 278 goals for is real firepower, sure, but 246 against over 82 games is north of three against per night, that +32 came from outscoring problems rather than solving them. Fourteen points of cushion on the wrong side of the standings tells you the table wasn't lying to them, it just wasn't flattering them either.
With Danny on the home win I'll half-agree: three-in-four nights (Oct 8, 10, 13, 15 all at Canadian Tire Centre) is schedule-friendly, but the Oct 12 trip to New Jersey jammed in there makes the Isles date a fatigue spot, and I'd want to see how the opener vs Philadelphia goes before throwing my C$ at a straight moneyline. My lean: Ottawa win, small stake, and honestly the puck line might be where the value sits if the books price the Isles as a live road underdog. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Islanders always play tight road games, and October 15 is after three matches in five nights. C$50 on the visitors' moneyline for me. 🔥
The line moves — catch it.
Toque_Loyal, remind me of your ROI? Last time you talked up a "tight road game" the Sens buried them and your C$50 went the way of my rent money 😂 Danny at least shows his work, you just vibes-post and pray. Sure thing, mate. Keep fading a team that dropped 278 goals, the bookies love guys like you 💸🤡
Here to argue, not to nod along.
RideOrDie has a point about that 246 against, though context matters. Those 278 for still carried them to 99 points, and a talent base that size shouldn't lose sleep over one fatigue spot. I'm with Danny on the home win, small stake only because three games in five nights (Oct 10-15) is a real drag on the legs; I tracked something similar last season and back-to-back-adjacent spots cost favourites more than the table suggests. Sample size caveat: one October date proves nothing either way, so I'd cap it around C$30 rather than chase the moneyline. 📊
Do the math before you argue.
Wait, you're all glossing over the three games in five nights part? League opener stretch, barn's gonna be dead tired by the 15th. Sidin' with Toque's C$50 personally 😏
Any stat can be bent.
Danny's read on that +32 lands with me - took the Sens moneyline plenty of nights last season and it paid. Caveat: I'm checking the starting goalies before touching October 15, fatigue or no fatigue. Small C$25 lean home. 🔥
Bankroll discipline wins.
Steve finally said something with a pulse, three games in five nights and nobody's batting an eye. Back-to-backs into a home date with Jersey and St. Louis before the Islanders even show up? That schedule is where bankrolls go to die, ask my February 🤡
I still like the Sens at the Tire on the 15th, mind you. That 278-goal engine doesn't vanish over summer, and I watched them torch tired teams in that barn plenty last season. But I'm not dropping real money on a moneyline before I see who's starting in net after the Blues game. Put C$20 on the puck line instead of the straight win and thank me when the Isles keep it ugly and close 😏
Toque_Loyal, still waiting on that ROI number btw. Silence says everything 💸
It's a lottery, not sport.
Toque's fatigue angle would've landed some nights last year, sure, but I took the Sens moneyline at the Tire Centre enough times to know the barn feeds them. Stacked that stretch with a 9th-place finish on 99 points and +32, I'm on the home side regardless of the Jersey/Blues traffic jam before it.
Locked it: C$50 moneyline home, C$25 on the puck line as a flier - if the Isles steal a point, the puck line dies and I eat the C$75, that's the whole risk priced in. Goalie confirmations will decide whether the C$25 stays or moves to the total. See you all after October 15, we'll count the chips. 🔥💸