Senators -1.5 vs Predators on October 10
Laying -1.5 with Ottawa here feels like paying premium for a name. That 278 vs 269 goals-against gap is the whole story for me. Nashville concede plenty, but their 269 allowed means the Sens' attack isn't walking into a piñata either, and 23rd place teams on the road in openers live all the way to the final buzzer. I'd want something close to plus money on the Preds' moneyline spot before I touch it, honestly.
My play is smaller on the Sens side instead: I like their scorers for shots/points props more than the team cover. If Ottawa wins 4-2, the puck line lands, sure, but one-goal games are the NHL's bread and butter, I've been burned too many times laying -1.5 on a "better" team. Stacked a modest C$50 on Sens team total over and a points prop instead, keeps the risk contained while the schedule softens after this one (Isles and Blues at home next). You only live once, but the bankroll lasts longer with -1.5 discipline 💸
Laying -1.5 with Ottawa here feels like paying premium for a name. That 278 vs 269 goals-against gap is the whole story for me. Nashville concede plenty, but their 269 allowed means the Sens' attack isn't walking into a …
Wait, so the guy 14 spots back is live because his defence is bad? Solid logic 😂 I put a toonie on Ottawa -1.5 and slept fine. What's your record on road openers, honestly? 🤡💸
Any stat can be bent.
Good grief, everyone's treating 278-246 like a wall, but dig a bit deeper: that's Ottawa's full differential against the league, and a 9-goal swing versus Nashville's 269 allowed is well within noise for a single-night sample 📊. I'd rather take points props over shots here, a 23rd-place road side sitting back invites cycle play and secondary assists, and my Ontario books have historically priced SOG on top-six Sens like everyone's a 40-shot team. Keep the stake small until we see how Nashville's road legs look after that long trip, honestly.
Context beats a bare stat.
Show me the numbers before anyone cashes a Sens -1.5 ticket. One full-season goal differential tells you almost nothing about a single October night - you'd want special teams and goaltending form, and nobody's posted either. I'd rather take an Ottawa team point prop at modest juice than lay the puck line against a side that scored 247 times. Not convinced the gap is coverable; I'll pass and watch.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Fair ask for form numbers, and I keep a sheet on this stuff, the honest answer is nobody's got October goaltending splits yet because the season just turned. One thing I'd flag before touching the puck line: Ottawa plays New Jersey on the 12th and St. Louis on the 13th right after this, so a back-to-back looms and you may see a heavier shot volume night than a blowout. Depends how you count it, but on a single-game sample I'd rather take a Sens skater's shots prop than chase the -1.5.
Numbers > vibes.
Diehard_Faithful asking for goaltending form is the first sensible thing in this thread. Nobody can post October splits because there are none yet, so anyone "feeling" the Sens -1.5 is guessing with extra steps. My caveat, though: even with form data you'd be leaning on a 9-goal aggregate swing over 82 games to justify laying -1.5, and that's a thin reed for a single-night price. I lost enough on openers like this back when I was betting off gut feel, set myself a rule after dropping a couple hundred C$ in one week. I'll take a shot prop instead if the number's reasonable, since shots are steadier night to night than points against a defence that gave up 269. Until someone shows me actual special teams or goalie numbers, I'm watching this one on the couch, not the ticket.
Hype isn't an argument.
I keep my own sheet too and I'll co-sign DiehardFan's schedule point: Ottawa's next three are all winnable-looking fixtures (Jersey away on the 12th, then Blues and Islanders at home), and that squeeze matters when you're laying a puck line in the opener. Coaches protect their depth chart in game one, especially with a back-to-back-ish stretch coming. Caveat on sample size: one October game with zero current-season data behind it is the smallest sample there is, so anyone hammering -1.5 with unit confidence is doing it on last year's 82-game reputation.
On the props question, I'd rather take a shot on Nashville's side than pile onto Ottawa's offence. Sens scored 278, Nashville allowed 269, that's roughly a 3.4 against per game defence, so the books will price Sens skaters' shots and points accordingly and there's no value left. Nashville's forwards, though, face a Sens team that gave up 246, and road teams in openers usually play a tight, low-event structure.
Do the math before you argue.
TorontoLoyal's schedule point is the one caveat I'd add, back-to-back-ish stretch can flatten effort in openers. I'll only touch shots props, and even then small. Show me the numbers first.
Where's the proof?
Agreed on shots over points, a 9-goal swing against Ottawa tells you their offence grinds, doesn't blow doors off. Give me a winger's SOG line, tiny stake.
Context beats a bare stat.
Sam's shots-over-points take is basically me picking a winger SOG with my C$5 "fun fund" 😂 I'd just add Nashville's travel day before the opener could make even those lines wobbly 🍿
Nashville travelling in for the opener after that Vegas game on the 14th? legs gonna be heavy 🔥 still wouldn't lay -1.5 tho, shots prop small all day 💪
You don't abandon your own.
Sam's right, shots over points 🔥 grew up watching our lot grind out 3-2 wins, that 278 is workmanlike not explosive. Small SOG stake for me, maybe C$10, backing them all day 💪
One love, one side ❤️
Hold on, Vancouver, Nashville's Vegas game is October 14, that's AFTER this one. They're coming in fresh-ish, so the heavy-legs angle doesn't hold. If anything the schedule favours them: Sens have Jersey away on the 12th and two more home dates stacked right after, so tonight's the spot where Ottawa might be looking down the week.
Verdict from me: I checked the goalie situation first like always, and with nothing confirmed I'm not touching -1.5 at whatever juice the book is asking. That 278 vs 269 gap screams one-goal game to me. Landed small on a winger SOG last night, same lesson as always - grind teams pay shots props, not puck lines. C$10 on the shots side, moneyline lean Ottawa, on and forgotten if the line moves before puck drop. 💸
The line moves — catch it.