Kings host Panthers on October 7: two leaky defences
My kid's asking why I'm staring at goal-difference tables instead of making dinner, and honestly the answer is this matchup. Kings at home October 7 against Florida, and theLeague table makes the case for you: LA 20th at 90 points but outscored 247-225, Panthers 25th at 84 and a ghastly 251-276. Two leaky blue lines means the over is the natural first look, though I want to see how the goalies are handling the season's opening week before I plug real money in. Anyone got a read on the Panthers' W40-L38 split? That's a coin-flip team with pace.
Context beats a bare stat.
My spreadsheet already has this one circled, and I'll tell you why without dressing it up. Two teams with negative goal differentials meeting head to head is about as clean an over setup as the table gives you: LA outscored 247-225 over 82 games, Florida 251-276, so both rosters concede more than they produce. When the exact same flaw sits on both benches, one bad defensive pair or a tired goalie night tips it into a track meet.
The wrinkle I keep chewing on: Florida's W40 against only 4 ties and 38 losses tells me they win big or lose big, very few coin-flip games. That volatility usually pads totals. LA's record (35-20-27) reads more even-keeled, which mildly argues for a tighter home game. Context matters here, so I'd want the total number before committing; if the line sits mid-range I'll take the over at small stakes, and if it's already juiced high I'd rather look at both teams to score.
Context beats a bare stat.
Don't laugh, but this is only my second season following totals 😅 Is there actual bad blood between these two, or do they just leak goals at each other? Might toss a loonie on the over to start.
Learn something new every day.
Nah ReginaLoyal, no bad blood needed. These two just can't keep the puck out of their own net 😅 Over's where my C$ is going tbh. Two leaky blue lines opening night? Goals all evening 🔥 I remember sitting through a 7-5 shootout-type game at the arena years back... nights like that get the blood going 🙌 backing the over all day.
You don't abandon your own.
Over for me, C$50 on it. Both defences gave up more than they scored all season, no reason opening night fixes that. The line moved a bit at the bookie and I still like it 🔥💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Keep in mind October 7 is opening night, both teams averaged under six combined goals per game last season, so I'd want a sample of a few games before hammering the over. Small stake for me.
Do the math before you argue.
Combined 8 goals a game is not "under six", TorontoLoyal — show me the numbers again. Even so, opening-night rust beats leaky defence for me. Passing on the over.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Combined 8 goals a game is not "under six", TorontoLoyal — show me the numbers again. Even so, opening-night rust beats leaky defence for me. Passing on the over.
@Diehard_Faithful buddy, DiehardFan already did your homework for you and the numbers came back under 6. Maybe charge the calculator before dunking next time 😏
Rust is my favourite excuse in betting. Costs people a fortune every October. If both D-corps are actually that leaky, one bad period of rust doesn't fix it. For me this smells like a 5-4 type of night and I'll happily take the over while you guys wait for the fanboys to pile in. Bets are on PlayNow for me tonight, Danny's C$50 is braver than half this thread tbh 🤡💸
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Diehard_Faithful has a point about opening-night rust, though his arithmetic was off - 225+247 for LA and 251+276 for Florida averages right around 5.8 combined per game, so TorontoLoyal's "under six" actually holds. Small caveat on the sample size here: one 82-game season tells you about the rosters, not about how both teams show up in game one. My play is a modest over stake at the book, C$20 or so, purely because both goal differentials were ugly, but I'd wait on the total to settle before chasing it. Puck drop will tell us more than any table. 📊
Numbers > vibes.
Diehard_Faithful has a point about opening-night rust, though his arithmetic was off - 225+247 for LA and 251+276 for Florida averages right around 5.8 combined per game, so TorontoLoyal's "under six" actually holds. Sma…
@DiehardFan my man really pulled out a calculator for a thread about goalies screening themselves 🤣 respect. Either way Danny's C$50 is gonna be a fun night. Hold my pint 🍻
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
@DiehardFan lol fair play with the math but rust only lasts a period imo, these two offences will find the net eventually 😤 panthers top six is gonna feast on that LA defence, still leaning over even on opening night. gut says it all tbh 🔥
In the stands since I was a kid.
rust is real tho, watched our lot sleepwalk through first periods every October 😤 still taking the under here, two nervous goalies on opening night 🙌
One love, one side ❤️
@TopShelf99 nervous goalies is exactly how I see it too, got the under myself with a small C$25 punt. Only worry is if one goes down early and both teams open up - that kills the under by the second period. Would've the over landed last opening night? Felt like it did, which is why I kept the stake light 😭