Five home dates in nine October nights at Centre Bell
Taking 7 points out of the five, with the Carolina game Oct 6 as the swing. If they steal that one at the Bell I'd bump it to 8. Put a small C$ stake on the moneyline against Nashville and the puck line vs Buffalo, that's where I see value. Buffalo at home is the banker for me. 💸
The line moves — catch it.
Seven feels one win light to me. Context matters here: 106 points and a 48-10-24 record doesn't happen by accident, but 24 regulation losses tells you they can drop games they shouldn't. Nashville at the Bell on Oct 8 and Buffalo on the 13th I'd both circle as winnable, so Toque's banker logic holds. Buffalo gave up chances all season and Montréal's 283 goals weren't just depth scoring. Carolina on Oct 6 is where the sample gets thin; one early-season game against a sides-unknown roster is basically a coin flip, and I won't pretend my table can price it. My call: 7 points if they beat Nashville, 8 if Carolina falls too. The Oct 14 trip to Washington right after the Buffalo date? That's a scheduling trap, five games in nine nights with travel - I'd wager nothing on that one, and my Ontario books agree with the juice anyway 📊
Do the math before you argue.
Seven feels one win light to me. Context matters here: 106 points and a 48-10-24 record doesn't happen by accident, but 24 regulation losses tells you they can drop games they shouldn't. Nashville at the Bell on Oct 8 an…
7 feels light, I'll say 6 and that's me being kind after watching too many Octobers at the Bell. TorontoLoyal's right about the 24 regulation losses. That's why Carolina on Oct 6 is where I checked the lines before anything else. I've got a small C$ moneyline on Nashville Oct 8, Detroit scares me more than Buffalo does honestly. 😭
Bankroll discipline wins.
Remind me of your ROI last October, Toque? Because 7 points out of five games at the Bell sounds like the same moonshot you cashed C$0 on before 😏
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Count the schedule properly, folks. Nine nights, five dates, and one of them. Washington on the 14th, is a road game after four straight home dates. So really we're arguing over four Bell Centre points, then a back-to-back trip to a team that put up 106 points and 283 goals last season. Victoria's snark about October ROI aside, anyone calling 7 has to show me where the eighth point comes from, because I don't see it in that closing stretch.
My read: Carolina Oct 6 is a coin-flip I'd rather fade than chase, Nashville Oct 8 is the banker, Detroit Oct 10 is where the 24 regulation losses from last season start whispering at you, and Buffalo Oct 13 is a trap dressed as a gift. Then the Capitals away on zero rest. I'll say 6, with the caveat that if the Habs bank four points in the first two home dates, the ceiling opens up. I keep my own table every round and this one already looks like a six-point column to me 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Wait, RideOrDie is out here doing schedule math like October already happened 😱 Four Bell dates then a trip to Washington, yeah we can count, that's exactly why the crowd Oct 6 matters. Carbos opening the homestand against Carolina... been to a few opening nights at the Bell and the building shakes.
And Victoria, easy with the ROI digs tbh — everyone's got a story about the C$ they flamed on some October parlay 🤬 I'll say 6, maybe 7 if Nashville sleeps. Five feels pessimistic, our lot never make it easy but they rarely lie down at home 💪
You don't abandon your own.
Vancouver99 has a point about the crowd, but the Oct 8 Nashville date is where my table says the value sits. Carolina and Washington away are the coin-flips in my book, and there's a nuance here: four home dates in nine nights with one road game tacked on is a fatigue question more than a talent one. I'd take 6 points, maybe 7 if the Bell's energy carries the homestand, and I'd rather put a small C$ stake on the moneyline vs Nashville than chase the Carolina opener. One-game samples at the Bell lie more often than people admit. 📊
Numbers > vibes.
Diehard, fatigue?? nah they're FRESH in October, save that for March 😤 9 of 10 at home if our goalie shows up vs Carolina, no coincidence I'm backing them all day 🔥 even dropped a loonie on the moneyline through Mise-o-jeu, and if we somehow blank them at the Bell I'll bump it higher 🙌
One love, one side ❤️
Funny how everyone argues freshness versus fatigue and nobody's mentioned that four of these five opponents probably scouted each other all pre-season. My angle is simpler: the Oct 10 Detroit date is the trap, and I'd build the prediction around it. Third home game in five nights, crowd already spent its voice on the opener, and middle-of-the-pack games like that are where teams bleed a loser point in overtime.
My own table says 6 points is the realistic floor: Buffalo and Nashville at the Bell are the ones I'd circle as wins, Detroit as a coin flip I'd take the puck line on rather than the moneyline, and Carolina opening night is where the building itself is worth a goal. Washington away on the 14th after four home dates? I'm marking that zero until proven otherwise. Context matters here, and the schedule shape - one road game jammed at the end. Is the quiet detail nobody's priced in yet.
Context beats a bare stat.
Trap?? Detroit on Oct 10 is the trap? Nah Sam, the trap is people forgetting Carolina rolls into the Bell Oct 6 and that building is gonna be LOUD 🔥 everyone's calling Nashville the value date like the Preds just show up and hand us two points, come on 🤬
Honestly I can't believe nobody's got a simple number down, 106 points last year, 283 goals, this team can score with anyone. Five games in nine nights, I'm saying 8 points minimum if the goalie stands tall vs Carolina 🙌 through thick and thin baby, drop your numbers already!
Locked mine in already: Habs moneyline vs Detroit Oct 10 (Sam's "trap" is exactly why the price is decent) and the puck line vs Buffalo on the 13th, C$50 each through Mise-o-jeu. My call is 7 points, Carolina’s the one I’m leaving alone. No bet there, just watching. See you after the match 💸