Everyone's fading the Jets at home to Colorado on October 7
Fading the Jets at home opening night? I've seen this movie before and it cost me a C$150 ticket last season when everyone piled on the visitor. Checked the odds at the bookie and Colorado's moneyline is already priced like a coronation - no value there for me. The number I actually like is the Jets on the puck line at home, getting that extra goal against a team that might still be finding its legs in game one of the season.
Yeah, 82 points and a minus-29 goal difference is ugly on paper, but October hockey is weird and Canada Life Centre opening night is a different animal. A 231-260 team at home in game one isn't the same as that team in March. I'm keeping the stake modest since I got burned loading up in week one before, smaller bet, Jets plus the goal, and I'll take my chances. If they lose by two-plus I'll tip my cap and move on to October 10 vs Anaheim, where the line should be softer. 🔥
Bankroll discipline wins.
26th in the league, -29 goal differential, and a .500 record over 82 games - that's a full-season sample, not noise. Value on Colorado's price might be thin, sure, but I'm not touching Winnipeg's moneyline either. 📊
Do the math before you argue.
Full-season sample says fade, but opening night home ice is exactly where public money overrates the visitor. I'd sooner take Winnipeg +1.5 than touch that Colorado price. 💸
lol RefBlindSurvivor, remind me of your ROI before you hand out puck line wisdom? Last thread you had Colorado in six and they got bounced early, but sure thing, mate, your +1.5 gut feeling is the edge nobody else spotted 😏 A team that went 35-35 with a minus-29 diff doesn't suddenly become value just because the crowd's on the other side - I'll be at Canada Life Centre enjoying the collapse live. 🤡💸
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Fading the home team on opening night at Canada Life Centre while Colorado's price is shorter than my patience, where's the value supposed to be exactly? 😏 A 231-260 goal diff over a full 82 is a proper stinker, but RefBlindSurvivor's puck line lean is the only sensible play here, I'll give him that before Victoria roasts him again. Anyway, my C$20 says the crowd that's piling on the Avs ends up funding my next ticket 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
RefBlindSurvivor I'm with you on the +1.5, loaded up a similar opener spot in Barrie last year and the line moved against the public fast. Colorado's price just stinks. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Danny, funny how the same guys preaching fade-the-public were all over Colorado last spring too 😂 This team went 35-35 with a worse goal diff than their points suggest, and you lot think one home opener fixes that? I'll be watching from the stands instead of burning C$ on that price. Remind me of your ROI come October 14 when Minnesota's in town, mate 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Danny the +1.5 makes sense to me honestly, maybe I'm wrong but home openers get weird 😅 only putting C$20 on it though, first season betting so keeping it small!
JoshTimsRun726 mate, 35-35 with a minus-29 goal diff and you're still curious where the value went? 😏 The +1.5 puck line is the only play here, and even that feels like paying for a coin flip eh.
Any stat can be bent.
Was at Canada Life for the opener two years back, same buzz, same result 😏 I'd take the +1.5 with TimsRunDad's C$20 logic, nothing more.
It's a lottery, not sport.
Colorado moneyline for me, small stake, plus a nibble on the +1.5. Goalie check tomorrow morning and I'm done. See you all after puck drop 💸
The line moves — catch it.