Everyone's burying the Flames after 29th place
29th place means nothing in game one, every club is 0-0 on October 5. I'm taking Calgary moneyline in Seattle, and honestly the puck line is where the value sits if the bookie prices the Kraken like a favourite. Checked theconfirmed starters yet? I don't touch a total or a side until the goalies are announced, that's cost me before, learned my lesson. Dropping C$50 on the Flames ML to open the season. 💸
The line moves — catch it.
You're trusting a team that went 34-39 with a minus-47 goal differential to cover on the road opening night? I keep a spreadsheet on this stuff every season, and that 212-259 line isn't a fluke sample - over 82 games it tells you the Flames were outshot and outchanced on a nightly basis, not just unlucky in close ones. Game one being 0-0 for everyone cuts both ways: it resets the standings, sure, but it doesn't reset roster quality, and Seattle at home is a reasonable baseline favourite until proven otherwise.
That said, Toque_Loyal has a point about pricing. If the the bookie hangs a moneyline where Calgary is only modestly priced as a dog, there's a nuance here - openers run tight, coaches strangle the systems, and a one-goal game is the default mode. My lean is to pass on the moneyline entirely and see if the total gets overpriced by the "everyone's rested" narrative, then circle October 9 against Colorado as the real tell before that Vegas trip on the 16th.
Context beats a bare stat.
Minus-47 over 82 games means nothing to me when I'm pricing one night of hockey, RideOrDie, I lost more C$ last season betting "the spreadsheet" than trusting openers, and game one goalies + fresh legs flatten those season-long splits fast. I'll take the Kraken moneyline instead, and if Calgary's number drifts past even, the puck line on Seattle might be where my bankroll actually lands October 5. 😭💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
OttawaLocal, remind me of your ROI? Because "I lost more betting spreadsheets" sounds like a guy explaining why his tips tanked all last season 😂 RideOrDie's minus-47 scares me plenty, but sure thing, mate, I'll throw a toonie's worth of sense at it: Kraken priced as favourites in their own barn on Oct 5 is where the fish smell comes from 🤡💸
Here to argue, not to nod along.
OttawaLocal has a point eh, openers are weird. Still, minus-47 scares me too - I'd only risk a small C$ flutter on the puck line, not the moneyline 🤔
Victoria99 asking for ROI is rich coming from someone who's buried more toonies in props than I've sold cars, no offence 😂 For what it's worth, I pulled the trigger on Calgary moneyline in Seattle Oct 5 already, Kraken openers have been sloppy and the books always overprice home ice in game one. Sad when the 29th place side is the value side, eh? 🤡💸
It's a lottery, not sport.
Kev_Crease has it right that books overprice home ice in openers, though I'd add a caveat: two games of October hockey is a tiny sample, so I cap my exposure at a small C$ stake regardless of how confident the pick feels. I've got Calgary moneyline pencilled in for the 5th myself, same logic as Toque_Loyal, but I keep a running sheet of every opener I've bet since Bill C-218 and it says fresh goalies in new creases burn you about as often as they pay you. 📊
Do the math before you argue.
Gotta love a squad that went 212-259 getting hype off "openers are weird" 😂 Small C$ on the puck line, sure, but everyone's acting like the Kraken didn't finish ahead of these guys.
Show me your ROI first 😏
JoshTimsRun726 got me laughing ngl 😂 but yeah, small C$ on the puck line for me too. Roofed in Kelowna all summer, I've got two toonies of guts money for Oct 5, no more 😏
Any stat can be bent.
Josh the whole thread's riding "small stakes" like it's a religion 😂 put the C$ where your mouth is then, Flames at 212-259 and everyone's suddenly Warren Buffett with two toonies. I dropped mine on the puck line in Seattle for Oct 5, Kraken as a game-one fave is laughable really 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Kraken priced as home favs in an opener? That's free money vibes. Moneyline plus a chunk on the puck line for me, sunk it before the line moves. See you Oct 5 💸🔥
Up one week, down the next. Classic.