Canadiens open October with five games in nine days
Carolina on Oct 6 is the one I trust least, that's a tough opener at Centre Bell and I'd rather stay off the moneyline entirely there. My play is Buffalo on the 13th, checked the starting goalies first as always, and took the puck line at the sportsbook before the line moved on me. Loaded up a bit of the bankroll on that one, the rest I'm sitting out. 🍺
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Funny how everyone anchors on the opener, because I went through my spreadsheet from last season and the numbers actually pushed me the same direction as Danny. Montréal came 6th with 106 points and a 283-256 goal record, which says strong but leaky, +27 goal difference over 82 games is thin cushion for a game against a Carolina side that will test that defence at Centre Bell on Oct 6. That one I'd skip on the moneyline too.
Where I'd dig a bit deeper than the Buffalo pick: three home games in five nights (Nashville on the 8th, Detroit on the 10th, Buffalo on the 13th) before the Washington trip on the 14th. Fatigue is the nuance here - the Sabres date is the third game of that cluster, so the "safest" label assumes the backup goalie starts or the legs hold up. If Danny's goalie check confirms a fresh starter for Buffalo, I'll agree the puck line there is the play. Otherwise Detroit on the 10th might quietly be the better number. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Spreadsheet from last season? Carolina still scares me more, Danny's right. I'd skip the 8th vs Nashville too, second night of a back-to-back situation kills my ROI every time 😭
Bankroll discipline wins.
Spreadsheet guy talking about ROI 😂 remind me of your record from last season? I faded Carolina opener too but the Buffalo lean is where my C$ went. 🤡
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Spent all day shingling in the sun thinking about this lineup instead of my actual job 😂 everyone's piling on Carolina but the one that makes me twitch is Buffalo on the 13th. Trap game if I ever saw one, middling opponent right before a quick turn around and Washington on the 14th. Classic spot where the price looks juicy and the effort shows up a night late.
OttawaLocal, buddy, which back-to-back are you talking about with Nashville? Game's on the 8th, there's a day off either side of it. If that's the spreadsheet-level analysis Victoria's roasting you for, I get why she's asking about your record 🤡 My C$ is staying off the opener and going on the Sabres date, and no I'm not sharing my picks sheet, ask Danny how that felt when the line moved on him 😏
Any stat can be bent.
Shingling all day and still thinking hockey, respect 😂 Steve's got a point tbh. Carolina on the 6th scares everyone but you just know the boys come out FLYING for the opener at Centre Bell, crowd's gonna carry them 💪🔥
Nah, the one giving me nightmares is Buffalo on the 13th. Trap game written all over it. Middling squad, everybody already looking ahead to Washington the next night. I got burned in Mise-o-jeu on a spot exactly like that last winter, still sour about it 🤬. Money goes near the Detroit game on the 10th for me, but the Sabres date? Not a cent. Heart says sweep the stretch, head says skip the 13th.
In the stands since I was a kid.
Steve's right, Buffalo sandwiched between Detroit and Washington is the trap 🤡 Carolina opener? Crowd's loud but I've watched too many openers turn into a lottery, not sport. 😏
It's a lottery, not sport.
Trapped-game talk is the loudest in the thread and I still landed on Buffalo on the 13th myself, middling Sabres side, one day before Washington, that's where the line usually gets soft. Staying off Carolina on the 6th entirely, opener against a team like that at Centre Bell is a coinflip. Small on the Habs puck line vs Buffalo, bankroll capped, then I'm done. See you after the match 💸
The line moves — catch it.